The peace that ended the catastrophic Tigray War is fracturing in real-time. Ethiopia’s federal military leaders are publicly preaching tactical patience, but the ground tells a very different story.
If you've been watching the Horn of Africa lately, you know the fragile 2022 Pretoria Agreement is hanging by a thread. Fresh offensives, newly formed rebel coalitions, and soaring regional tensions are pushing Ethiopia back toward full-scale conflict.
Let's look at why the military's promise of restraint might not be enough to stop a broader disaster.
The Collapse of the Pretoria Agreement
The 2022 cessation of hostilities pact brought a fragile calm to northern Ethiopia. It stopped the bloodshed temporarily. But critics point out that the federal government failed to honor core commitments.
Experts like Alemayehu Weldemariam, a law professor at Indiana University, note that the federal administration itself sabotaged key provisions. Critical infrastructure, cash flow, and fuel supplies to Tigray faced constant restrictions. Worse, the promised permanent interim administration stalled. Tigray remained locked out of national political life, building deep resentment and setting the stage for a new eruption.
By July 2026, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) declared the Pretoria deal effectively dead. August brought direct skirmishes near the Sudan border. The writing was on the wall.
A Dangerous New Coalition Forms
The crisis is no longer isolated to Tigray. On September 20, 2026, seven distinct rebel factions banded together to form the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS).
This new coalition includes heavy hitters from multiple fronts:
- The Amhara Fano National Movement
- The TPLF
- The Oromo Liberation Army
- The Ogaden National Liberation Front
- The Afar Revolutionary Democratic forces
Their stated goal is simple and total: overthrow the administration led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish a transitional government.
When regional rebel groups unify their operational capabilities, things escalate quickly. Within days of the coalition's formation, fighting spiked across multiple borders. Airports in Axum, Shire, and Mekelle faced swift seizures during sudden offensives. Airpower met ground advances, leading to immediate civilian casualties and canceled commercial flights.
Pointing Fingers at External Actors
Amid rising violence, Addis Ababa is looking outward for blame. Ethiopia's army chief has openly accused neighboring Eritrea of funding and supporting armed groups to destabilize the central government.
Meanwhile, at the United Nations General Assembly, Ethiopia's president tried to project an image of steady regional leadership, emphasizing the nation's mediation role in Sudan. But international observers aren't easily convinced. Washington recently lifted sanctions tied to atrocities from the previous war, arguing that the formal national emergency had expired. That decision looks increasingly premature as a wider regional war threatens to pull in cross-border militias and ignite old rivalries.
What Happens Next
Restraint from the military sounds good in official press releases. Troops can hold their fire for only so long when key transport hubs are seized and rebel coalitions are actively moving across regional boundaries.
Communication blackouts are returning to conflict zones like Tigray as phone and internet lines get cut. Humanitarian access is shrinking. If the federal government and the newly formed EPFAS coalition don't step back from the brink immediately, the upcoming months will match the darkest days of the previous conflict.
Keep an eye on regional supply lines and border skirmishes in the Afar and Amhara regions. That's where the next major tipping point will happen.
